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Disclaimer

Effective July 9, 2026

Not investment advice

Arcthane is a research tool. It aggregates and scores publicly available information about federal contract activity and related events. Nothing it produces — signals, scores, probabilities, action labels, alerts, analytics, or commentary — is investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security. We are not a registered investment adviser, broker-dealer, or fiduciary, and no adviser-client relationship is created by your use of the service.

Signals are automated and often wrong

Scores are produced by statistical models over public data. Models make errors: data arrives late or wrong, predictions miss, and high-scoring signals lose money a large minority of the time — the track record quantifies exactly how often. An action label like "buy watch" is a research annotation on public data, not an instruction.

Past performance

All performance figures are historical, computed against sector benchmarks as described in the methodology. Past performance does not guarantee, and is not evidence of, future results. Realized medians and hit rates will change as new outcomes accrue — including for the worse.

Risk

Trading securities involves substantial risk of loss, including total loss of principal. Securities discussed or surfaced by the service can be illiquid, volatile, and unsuitable for your situation. Consult a qualified financial adviser before making investment decisions. You alone are responsible for your trades.

Data

Underlying records come from government and market data sources we do not control. We make no warranty as to their accuracy, completeness, or timeliness, nor to the accuracy of our reading of them.